FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Weverson

LBBrazil · Gil Vicente FC

№ 412367Emerging €667k +0.18

Player dossierLiga Portugal

Weverson

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Gil Vicente FC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
25
Height
185 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Weverson at €800k. Model A, which never saw Weverson during training, estimates €667k: the market value is 20% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €940k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.18A €667k▼ −0.16B €940k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
27
Minutes
1,898
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
22/27
Min / app
70
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Weverson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €667k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Weverson's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 62nd, Assists per 90 87th, Minutes, two years 32nd, Starts 48th, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 30th62ndGoals87thAssists32ndMinutes48thStarts2ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.14 this player0.04 defender median87th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€375k
Sept 2020
Peak
€1.5M
Jun 2024
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
14
3 club changes
May 2026€800kGil Vicente FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, Gil Vicente FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-09-09€375kRed Bull Bragantino
2021-02-09€500kRed Bull Bragantino
2021-05-28€500kRed Bull Bragantino
2021-12-17€900kRed Bull Bragantino
2022-04-06€900kRed Bull Bragantino
2022-08-19€900kRed Bull Bragantino
2022-11-14€900kRed Bull Bragantino
2023-06-16€600kFC Arouca
2023-12-27€600kFC Arouca
2024-06-06€1.5MFC Arouca
2024-12-19€1MFC Arouca
2025-05-30€1.5MFC Arouca
2025-12-10€1.2MFortaleza Esporte Clube
2026-05-28€800kGil Vicente FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.182

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 35% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 29% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Weverson appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).