Murilo
RWBrazil · Gil Vicente FC
Player dossierLiga Portugal
Murilo
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- Gil Vicente FC
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 177 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Murilo at €800k. Model A, which never saw Murilo during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 49% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.96. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 32
- Minutes
- 2,592
- Goals
- 11
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 30/32
- Min / app
- 81
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Murilo…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
94% this player59% attacker median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Feb 2015
- Peak
- €1.5M
- Jun 2019
- Model target
- €800k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 28
- 11 club changes
May 2026: €800k, Gil Vicente FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-02-01 | €500k | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2015-05-31 | €350k | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2015-09-11 | €250k | Macaé Esporte Futebol Clube (RJ) |
| 2015-12-15 | €250k | Barra Futebol Clube (RS) |
| 2016-05-27 | €200k | Joinville Esporte Clube (SC) |
| 2016-07-23 | €150k | Joinville Esporte Clube (SC) |
| 2017-09-08 | €225k | CD Nacional |
| 2018-02-23 | €350k | CD Nacional |
| 2018-06-29 | €600k | CD Nacional |
| 2019-01-11 | €500k | SC Braga |
| 2019-06-07 | €1.5M | SC Braga |
| 2019-12-30 | €1.5M | SC Braga |
| 2020-04-08 | €1.2M | Sporting Gijón |
| 2020-08-17 | €1.2M | SC Braga |
| 2020-10-08 | €1M | RCD Mallorca |
| 2021-01-08 | €800k | RCD Mallorca |
| 2021-06-24 | €600k | RCD Mallorca |
| 2021-12-27 | €600k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2022-05-31 | €600k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2022-11-01 | €600k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2023-03-02 | €800k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2023-06-16 | €1M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2023-12-27 | €900k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2024-06-06 | €1.2M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2024-12-10 | €1M | Kyoto Sanga |
| 2025-05-29 | €850k | Kyoto Sanga |
| 2025-12-18 | €800k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2026-05-28 | €800k | Gil Vicente FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.672
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 35% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 25% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Murilo appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- RamosGKFC Porto · Liga Portugal€800k
- KuipersLBFC Arouca · Liga Portugal€800k
- XekaCMGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€800k
- VirgíniaGKSporting CP · Liga Portugal€800k
- RamanCFKV Mechelen · attackers€800k
- NiangCFGenclerbirligi Ankara · attackers€800k
- PratsCFRCD Mallorca · attackers€800k
- JeremejeffCFPAOK Thessaloniki · attackers€800k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).