FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Alexis

Sánchez

SSChile · Sevilla FC

№ 40433Emerging €235k +1.63

Player dossierLaLiga

AlexisSánchez

SSSecond StrikerAttack

Club
Sevilla FC
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Chile
Age
37
Height
169 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sánchez at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Sánchez during training, estimates €235k: the market value is 410% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×5.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €187k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.63A €235k▲ +1.86B €187k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
1,879
Goals
4
Assists
2
Started
19/44
Min / app
43
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sánchez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €235k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Alexis Sánchez's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 34th, Assists per 90 30th, Minutes, two years 41st, Starts 25th, Minutes, last 365 days 54th, European club minutes 28th34thGoals30thAssists41stMinutes25thStarts54thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

1,400 this player1,301 attacker median54th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2006
Peak
€70M
Jan 2018
Model target
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
48
10 club changes
Jun 2026€1.2MSevilla FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, Sevilla FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2006-12-29€50kCSD Colo-Colo
2007-09-24€2.8MCA River Plate
2008-03-31€3.4MCA River Plate
2008-07-04€3.8MUdinese Calcio
2009-08-06€6.5MUdinese Calcio
2010-01-27€7MUdinese Calcio
2010-05-09€8MUdinese Calcio
2010-08-01€9.5MUdinese Calcio
2011-01-10€13.5MUdinese Calcio
2011-03-18€18.5MUdinese Calcio
2011-06-21€25MUdinese Calcio
2011-07-29€26MFC Barcelona
2012-02-03€28MFC Barcelona
2012-04-14€30MFC Barcelona
2012-08-07€38MFC Barcelona
2013-01-10€28MFC Barcelona
2013-03-07€25MFC Barcelona
2013-06-12€26MFC Barcelona
2014-01-23€30MFC Barcelona
2014-08-12€38MArsenal FC
2015-02-12€45MArsenal FC
2015-07-01€55MArsenal FC
2016-02-09€55MArsenal FC
2016-08-01€55MArsenal FC
2017-02-20€65MArsenal FC
2017-06-28€65MArsenal FC
2018-01-02€70MArsenal FC
2018-05-28€70MManchester United
2018-10-17€55MManchester United
2018-12-19€45MManchester United
2019-06-13€35MManchester United
2019-12-12€25MInter Milan
2020-03-03€20MInter Milan
2020-04-08€16MInter Milan
2020-08-25€16MInter Milan
2020-12-29€10MInter Milan
2021-06-03€7.5MInter Milan
2021-10-14€5MInter Milan
2021-12-28€3.5MInter Milan
2022-06-07€3.5MInter Milan
2022-11-02€4.5MOlympique Marseille
2023-06-27€4MOlympique Marseille
2023-12-20€2.5MInter Milan
2024-06-05€2.5MInter Milan
2024-12-18€2MUdinese Calcio
2025-06-17€1.5MUdinese Calcio
2025-12-12€1.4MSevilla FC
2026-06-05€1.2MSevilla FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.629

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 15% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 34% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sánchez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).