FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Daley

Blind

CBNetherlands · Girona FC

№ 12282Emerging €679k +0.57

Player dossierLaLiga

DaleyBlind

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Girona FC
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
36
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Blind at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Blind during training, estimates €679k: the market value is 77% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.77. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €522k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.57A €679k▲ +0.83B €522k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
71
Minutes
5,863
Goals
0
Assists
3
Started
67/71
Min / app
83
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Blind…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €679k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Daley Blind's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 54th, Minutes, two years 92nd, Starts 82nd, Minutes, last 365 days 79th, European club minutes 67th18thGoals54thAssists92ndMinutes82ndStarts79thRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,863 this player2,860 defender median92nd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Dec 2008
Peak
€25M
Dec 2019
Model target
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
39
5 club changes
Jun 2026€1.2MGirona FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, Girona FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2008-12-08€100kAjax Amsterdam U21
2009-01-08€750kAjax Amsterdam
2010-08-01€1MAjax Amsterdam
2011-06-15€1.3MAjax Amsterdam
2012-01-05€1MAjax Amsterdam
2012-06-30€1.3MAjax Amsterdam
2013-01-09€2MAjax Amsterdam
2013-05-28€4.5MAjax Amsterdam
2014-02-11€6MAjax Amsterdam
2014-08-11€12MAjax Amsterdam
2014-10-05€15MManchester United
2015-02-12€15MManchester United
2015-07-01€17MManchester United
2016-02-09€19MManchester United
2016-08-01€22MManchester United
2017-02-20€22MManchester United
2017-06-28€22MManchester United
2018-01-02€20MManchester United
2018-05-28€18MManchester United
2018-12-28€18MAjax Amsterdam
2019-06-12€24MAjax Amsterdam
2019-12-18€25MAjax Amsterdam
2020-04-08€20MAjax Amsterdam
2020-10-14€20MAjax Amsterdam
2021-01-06€15MAjax Amsterdam
2021-05-27€15MAjax Amsterdam
2021-10-04€13.5MAjax Amsterdam
2022-01-05€13.5MAjax Amsterdam
2022-03-17€10MAjax Amsterdam
2022-06-08€9MAjax Amsterdam
2022-09-14€7MAjax Amsterdam
2022-11-11€6MAjax Amsterdam
2023-06-22€3MBayern Munich
2023-12-22€3MGirona FC
2024-06-07€3MGirona FC
2024-12-27€2MGirona FC
2025-06-09€1.5MGirona FC
2025-12-12€1.4MGirona FC
2026-06-05€1.2MGirona FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.570

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 15% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Blind appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).