Stephen
Welsh
CBScotland · Motherwell FC
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremiership
StephenWelsh
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Motherwell FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Scotland
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 189 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Welsh at €2M. Model A, which never saw Welsh during training, estimates €887k: the market value is 126% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 33
- Minutes
- 2,527
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 30/33
- Min / app
- 77
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Welsh…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
91% this player83% defender median72nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Aug 2019
- Peak
- €2M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €2M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 16
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €2M, Motherwell FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-08-31 | €50k | Greenock Morton FC |
| 2020-02-05 | €150k | Celtic FC B |
| 2021-01-18 | €200k | Celtic FC |
| 2021-06-28 | €1.2M | Celtic FC |
| 2021-12-31 | €1.5M | Celtic FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €1.5M | Celtic FC |
| 2022-12-13 | €1.5M | Celtic FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €1M | Celtic FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €800k | Celtic FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €800k | Celtic FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €800k | Celtic FC |
| 2025-06-12 | €1M | KV Mechelen |
| 2025-10-08 | €800k | Motherwell FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €800k | Motherwell FC |
| 2026-03-05 | €1.5M | Motherwell FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €2M | Motherwell FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.814
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 82% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Welsh appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- McGregorDMCeltic FC · Premiership€2M
- SouttarCBRangers FC · Premiership€2M
- SaracchiLBCeltic FC · Premiership€2M
- DevlinCMHeart of Midlothian FC · Premiership€2M
- HummelsCBAS Roma · defenders€2M
- GünterLBSC Freiburg · defenders€2M
- KohrCB1.FSV Mainz 05 · defenders€2M
- KayembeLBKRC Genk · defenders€2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).