FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Cammy

Devlin

CMAustralia · Heart of Midlothian FC

№ 399162Established €2.4M −0.20

Player dossierPremiership

CammyDevlin

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Heart of Midlothian FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Australia
Age
27
Height
170 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Devlin at €2M. Model A, which never saw Devlin during training, estimates €2.4M: the market value is 18% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.20A €2.4M▲ +0.48B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
55
Minutes
4,355
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
48/55
Min / app
79
Cards
16Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Devlin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €2.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Cammy Devlin's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 21st, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 79th, Starts 82nd, Minutes, last 365 days 72nd, European club minutes 64th21stGoals17thAssists79thMinutes82ndStarts72ndRecent64thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

87% this player69% midfielder median82nd percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Mar 2019
Peak
€2M
May 2026
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
15
2 club changes
May 2026€2MHeart of Midlothian FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, Heart of Midlothian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-03-02€50kSydney FC
2019-09-11€100kWellington Phoenix
2020-10-08€400kWellington Phoenix
2021-03-30€400kWellington Phoenix
2021-12-31€600kHeart of Midlothian FC
2022-06-27€600kHeart of Midlothian FC
2022-11-14€700kHeart of Midlothian FC
2023-06-26€750kHeart of Midlothian FC
2023-09-22€800kHeart of Midlothian FC
2023-12-05€800kHeart of Midlothian FC
2024-05-30€1MHeart of Midlothian FC
2024-12-03€1MHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-06-17€1MHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-12-10€1.2MHeart of Midlothian FC
2026-05-20€2MHeart of Midlothian FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.202

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 82% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Devlin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).