FairValue

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Éder

Militão

CBBrazil · Real Madrid

№ 401530Elite €12.1M +0.51

Player dossierLaLiga

ÉderMilitão

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Real Madrid
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Brazil
Age
28
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Militão at €20M. Model A, which never saw Militão during training, estimates €12.1M: the market value is 66% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.66. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.51A €12.1M▲ +1.55B €4.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
39
Minutes
2,867
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
33/39
Min / app
74
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Militão…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €12.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Éder Militão's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 85th, Assists per 90 64th, Minutes, two years 50th, Starts 54th, Minutes, last 365 days 46th, European club minutes 93rd85thGoals64thAssists50thMinutes54thStarts46thRecent93rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

27% this player0% defender median93rd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Oct 2017
Peak
€70M
Mar 2023
Model target
€20M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
2 club changes
Jun 2026€20MReal MadridValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €20M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-10-30€1MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2017-12-07€2MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2018-05-23€8MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2018-11-01€20MFC Porto
2019-01-11€35MFC Porto
2019-03-18€50MFC Porto
2019-06-07€50MFC Porto
2019-12-20€45MReal Madrid
2020-03-05€40MReal Madrid
2020-04-08€36MReal Madrid
2020-10-08€40MReal Madrid
2021-01-05€30MReal Madrid
2021-06-10€40MReal Madrid
2021-12-30€60MReal Madrid
2022-06-03€60MReal Madrid
2022-11-07€60MReal Madrid
2023-03-23€70MReal Madrid
2023-06-13€70MReal Madrid
2023-12-22€70MReal Madrid
2024-06-07€60MReal Madrid
2024-12-27€40MReal Madrid
2025-06-09€30MReal Madrid
2025-12-12€30MReal Madrid
2026-03-16€25MReal Madrid
2026-06-05€20MReal Madrid

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.506

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 86% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Militão appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).