FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Oliver

Olsen

RBDenmark · Randers FC

№ 400542Emerging €926k +0.66

Player dossierSuperliga

OliverOlsen

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Randers FC
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
25
Height
190 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
15 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Olsen at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Olsen during training, estimates €926k: the market value is 94% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.94. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.66A €926k▲ +0.30B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
3,707
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
40/44
Min / app
84
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Olsen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €926k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Oliver Olsen's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 77th, Assists per 90 40th, Minutes, two years 65th, Starts 72nd, Minutes, last 365 days 63rd, European club minutes 30th77thGoals40thAssists65thMinutes72ndStarts63rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.07 this player0.03 defender median77th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2018
Peak
€1.8M
Dec 2025
Model target
€1.8M
Dec 2025
Valuations
16
3 club changes
Dec 2025€1.8MRanders FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1.8M, Randers FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-12-21€50kFC Midtjylland U19
2019-06-08€100kFC Midtjylland U19
2019-12-22€100kFC Midtjylland U19
2020-07-31€100kFC Midtjylland U19
2020-12-23€100kFC Midtjylland
2021-06-04€100kFC Midtjylland
2021-10-06€200kFC Fredericia
2021-12-28€250kFC Fredericia
2022-06-20€300kFC Fredericia
2022-12-22€300kFC Fredericia
2023-06-26€250kFC Fredericia
2023-12-21€350kRanders FC
2024-06-10€550kRanders FC
2024-12-09€850kRanders FC
2025-06-16€1.3MRanders FC
2025-12-15€1.8MRanders FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.665

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 70% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 48% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Olsen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).