FairValue

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Aurélio

Buta

RBPortugal · FC Copenhagen

№ 258039Established €1.4M +0.35

Player dossierSuperliga

AurélioButa

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
FC Copenhagen
League
Superliga
Nationality
Portugal
Age
29
Height
172 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Buta at €2M. Model A, which never saw Buta during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 42% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.35A €1.4M▲ +0.36B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
38
Minutes
2,583
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
30/38
Min / app
68
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Buta…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €1.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Aurélio Buta's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 47th, Minutes, two years 44th, Starts 42nd, Minutes, last 365 days 15th, European club minutes 65th18thGoals47thAssists44thMinutes42ndStarts15thRecent65thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

4% this player0% defender median65th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Sept 2016
Peak
€8M
Jun 2023
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
26
5 club changes
May 2026€2MFC CopenhagenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, FC Copenhagen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-09-30€150kSL Benfica B
2017-06-30€350kSL Benfica B
2018-01-09€600kRoyal Antwerp FC
2018-06-03€800kRoyal Antwerp FC
2018-12-27€1.8MRoyal Antwerp FC
2019-03-04€3MRoyal Antwerp FC
2019-06-10€3MRoyal Antwerp FC
2019-12-13€4MRoyal Antwerp FC
2020-03-30€6MRoyal Antwerp FC
2020-04-08€4.8MRoyal Antwerp FC
2020-10-16€4.8MRoyal Antwerp FC
2021-01-04€4MRoyal Antwerp FC
2021-03-15€3.5MRoyal Antwerp FC
2021-06-07€3.5MRoyal Antwerp FC
2022-01-06€3MRoyal Antwerp FC
2022-04-12€3MRoyal Antwerp FC
2022-11-09€3MEintracht Frankfurt
2023-03-29€6MEintracht Frankfurt
2023-06-22€8MEintracht Frankfurt
2023-12-14€8MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-03-27€6MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-05-29€5MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-12-10€5MStade Reims
2025-06-03€5MStade Reims
2025-12-19€3MEintracht Frankfurt
2026-05-25€2MFC Copenhagen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.352

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 70% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Buta appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).