Maarten
Paes
GKIndonesia · Ajax Amsterdam
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierEredivisie
MaartenPaes
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Ajax Amsterdam
- League
- Eredivisie
- Nationality
- Indonesia
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
EredivisieReading the valuation
The market values Paes at €2M. Model A, which never saw Paes during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 64% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.64. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €842k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 11
- Minutes
- 990
- Started
- 11/11
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Paes…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Jul 2017
- Peak
- €2M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €2M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 22
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €2M, Ajax Amsterdam. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-07-01 | €50k | NEC Nijmegen |
| 2018-03-01 | €50k | NEC Nijmegen |
| 2018-06-29 | €100k | NEC Nijmegen |
| 2018-12-28 | €150k | FC Utrecht U21 |
| 2019-01-21 | €150k | FC Utrecht U21 |
| 2019-06-12 | €200k | FC Utrecht U21 |
| 2019-09-19 | €900k | FC Utrecht |
| 2019-12-18 | €1.5M | FC Utrecht |
| 2020-04-08 | €1.3M | FC Utrecht |
| 2020-10-14 | €1.3M | FC Utrecht |
| 2021-03-09 | €1M | FC Utrecht |
| 2021-05-19 | €800k | FC Utrecht |
| 2021-10-04 | €900k | FC Utrecht |
| 2022-01-05 | €900k | FC Utrecht |
| 2022-11-08 | €1.2M | FC Dallas |
| 2023-08-22 | €1.2M | FC Dallas |
| 2023-12-18 | €1.2M | FC Dallas |
| 2024-06-13 | €1.5M | FC Dallas |
| 2024-12-12 | €1.8M | FC Dallas |
| 2025-06-05 | €1.8M | FC Dallas |
| 2025-12-11 | €1.5M | FC Dallas |
| 2026-05-28 | €2M | Ajax Amsterdam |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.495
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Eredivisie425 players · median €1M
Valued above 62% of the 425 Eredivisie players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 59% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Paes appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BerghuisRWAjax Amsterdam · Eredivisie€2M
- KlaassenCMAjax Amsterdam · Eredivisie€2M
- OlijGKPSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie€2M
- WeghorstCFAjax Amsterdam · Eredivisie€2M
- SommerGKInter Milan · goalkeepers€2M
- SkorupskiGKBologna FC 1909 · goalkeepers€2M
- RönnowGK1.FC Union Berlin · goalkeepers€2M
- JohnstoneGKWolverhampton Wanderers · goalkeepers€2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).