Leon
Bailey
RWJamaica · Aston Villa
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
LeonBailey
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- Aston Villa
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Jamaica
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Bailey at €14M. Model A, which never saw Bailey during training, estimates €18.7M: the market value is 25% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.33. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €12.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 66
- Minutes
- 2,789
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 6
- Started
- 29/66
- Min / app
- 42
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bailey…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €14M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
23% this player0% attacker median87th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €400k
- Sept 2015
- Peak
- €45M
- Apr 2018
- Model target
- €14M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 31
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €14M, Aston Villa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-09-15 | €400k | KRC Genk |
| 2015-10-22 | €2.5M | KRC Genk |
| 2016-02-07 | €4M | KRC Genk |
| 2016-07-15 | €7.5M | KRC Genk |
| 2016-10-20 | €12.5M | KRC Genk |
| 2017-01-21 | €12.5M | KRC Genk |
| 2017-06-19 | €11M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2017-12-28 | €28M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2018-04-04 | €45M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2018-06-05 | €45M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2018-12-18 | €35M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2019-06-05 | €40M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2019-12-17 | €37M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2020-04-08 | €29.5M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2021-02-10 | €35M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2021-06-09 | €35M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2021-12-23 | €32M | Aston Villa |
| 2022-03-29 | €30M | Aston Villa |
| 2022-06-15 | €25M | Aston Villa |
| 2022-11-03 | €25M | Aston Villa |
| 2023-06-20 | €28M | Aston Villa |
| 2023-12-19 | €30M | Aston Villa |
| 2024-03-14 | €35M | Aston Villa |
| 2024-05-27 | €42M | Aston Villa |
| 2024-12-16 | €38M | Aston Villa |
| 2025-03-18 | €32M | Aston Villa |
| 2025-05-30 | €28M | Aston Villa |
| 2025-10-07 | €22M | AS Roma |
| 2025-12-23 | €18M | AS Roma |
| 2026-03-09 | €16M | Aston Villa |
| 2026-06-03 | €14M | Aston Villa |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.288
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 42% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 81% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Bailey appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- WillockCMNewcastle United · Premier League€14M
- ThomasLWStoke City · Premier League€14M
- MoratoCBNottingham Forest · Premier League€14M
- AlissonGKLiverpool FC · Premier League€15M
- PiccoliCFACF Fiorentina · attackers€14M
- CambiaghiLWBologna FC 1909 · attackers€14M
- AsprillaRWGalatasaray · attackers€14M
- EmboloCFStade Rennais FC · attackers€15M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).