Morato
CBBrazil · Nottingham Forest
Player dossierPremier League
Morato
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Nottingham Forest
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Morato at €14M. Model A, which never saw Morato during training, estimates €23.2M: the market value is 40% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.66. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €23.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 67
- Minutes
- 3,854
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 38/67
- Min / app
- 58
- Cards
- 14Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Morato…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €14M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
30% this player0% defender median95th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- May 2019
- Peak
- €15M
- Sept 2022
- Model target
- €14M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 18
- 3 club changes
Jun 2026: €14M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-28 | €50k | São Paulo FC U20 |
| 2019-12-31 | €2M | SL Benfica B |
| 2020-04-08 | €1.8M | SL Benfica B |
| 2020-11-02 | €1.5M | SL Benfica B |
| 2021-06-29 | €2M | SL Benfica B |
| 2021-09-21 | €5M | SL Benfica |
| 2021-12-27 | €7.5M | SL Benfica |
| 2022-03-10 | €10M | SL Benfica |
| 2022-05-31 | €10M | SL Benfica |
| 2022-09-16 | €15M | SL Benfica |
| 2022-11-01 | €15M | SL Benfica |
| 2023-06-16 | €13M | SL Benfica |
| 2023-12-27 | €15M | SL Benfica |
| 2024-06-06 | €15M | SL Benfica |
| 2024-12-16 | €15M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2025-05-30 | €14M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2025-12-09 | €14M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-06-03 | €14M | Nottingham Forest |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.504
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 42% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 86% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Morato appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- WillockCMNewcastle United · Premier League€14M
- BaileyRWAston Villa · Premier League€14M
- ThomasLWStoke City · Premier League€14M
- AlissonGKLiverpool FC · Premier League€15M
- ÇelikRBAS Roma · defenders€14M
- SallaiRBGalatasaray · defenders€14M
- GattiCBJuventus FC · defenders€14M
- IdzesCBUS Sassuolo · defenders€14M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).