FairValue

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Daniel

Mancini

RWArgentina · Panathinaikos FC

№ 381348Established €3.1M −0.42

Player dossierSuper League

DanielMancini

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Panathinaikos FC
League
Super League
Nationality
Argentina
Age
29
Height
172 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
12 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Mancini at €2M. Model A, which never saw Mancini during training, estimates €3.1M: the market value is 35% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.42A €3.1M▼ −0.36B €2.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
2,332
Goals
0
Assists
7
Started
25/54
Min / app
43
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mancini…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €3.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Daniel Mancini's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 86th, Minutes, two years 52nd, Starts 29th, Minutes, last 365 days 21st, European club minutes 79th3rdGoals86thAssists52ndMinutes29thStarts21stRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.27 this player0.15 attacker median86th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Jul 2015
Peak
€3M
May 2023
Model target
€2M
Dec 2025
Valuations
21
5 club changes
Dec 2025€2MPanathinaikos FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €2M, Panathinaikos FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-14€400kCA Newell's Old Boys
2016-02-06€750kCA Newell's Old Boys
2016-08-08€1.5MCA Newell's Old Boys
2017-06-01€1.3MFC Girondins Bordeaux
2018-05-16€1MTours FC
2019-01-08€1MAJ Auxerre
2019-06-27€1MAJ Auxerre
2019-12-18€800kAris Thessaloniki
2020-04-08€650kAris Thessaloniki
2020-08-04€700kAris Thessaloniki
2021-02-12€700kAris Thessaloniki
2021-11-01€800kAris Thessaloniki
2022-02-22€1.2MAris Thessaloniki
2022-06-09€2MAris Thessaloniki
2022-11-07€2.5MAris Thessaloniki
2023-05-22€3MPanathinaikos FC
2023-12-20€3MPanathinaikos FC
2024-05-30€3MPanathinaikos FC
2024-12-18€3MPanathinaikos FC
2025-05-23€2.5MPanathinaikos FC
2025-12-12€2MPanathinaikos FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.424

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 79% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 44% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mancini appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).