FairValue

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Fredrik

Jensen

AMFinland · Aris Thessaloniki

№ 249157Established €978k +0.71

Player dossierSuper League

FredrikJensen

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Aris Thessaloniki
League
Super League
Nationality
Finland
Age
28
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Jensen at €2M. Model A, which never saw Jensen during training, estimates €978k: the market value is 104% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.71A €978k▲ +0.50B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
39
Minutes
2,098
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
25/39
Min / app
54
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jensen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €978k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Fredrik Jensen's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 51st, Assists per 90 25th, Minutes, two years 39th, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 43rd, European club minutes 64th51stGoals25thAssists39thMinutes40thStarts43rdRecent64thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

4% this player0% midfielder median64th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2016
Peak
€3.5M
Dec 2023
Model target
€2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
2 club changes
Jun 2026€2MAris ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2M, Aris Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-07-01€100kFC Twente Enschede
2016-10-17€300kFC Twente Enschede
2017-01-18€300kFC Twente Enschede
2017-06-07€800kFC Twente Enschede
2017-10-26€1.5MFC Twente Enschede
2018-01-17€2MFC Twente Enschede
2018-06-12€2MFC Twente Enschede
2018-08-22€3MFC Augsburg
2018-12-18€3MFC Augsburg
2019-06-05€2.5MFC Augsburg
2019-12-17€2.5MFC Augsburg
2020-04-08€2MFC Augsburg
2021-02-10€2MFC Augsburg
2021-05-26€2MFC Augsburg
2021-12-22€2MFC Augsburg
2022-06-09€1.5MFC Augsburg
2022-11-09€2.5MFC Augsburg
2023-06-22€2.5MFC Augsburg
2023-12-14€3.5MFC Augsburg
2024-05-29€3.5MFC Augsburg
2024-12-20€3.5MFC Augsburg
2025-06-05€3.5MFC Augsburg
2025-12-12€3MAris Thessaloniki
2026-03-06€2.5MAris Thessaloniki
2026-06-04€2MAris Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.715

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 79% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Jensen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).