FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Yangel

Herrera

CMVenezuela · Real Sociedad

№ 378293Established €3.2M +0.63

Player dossierLaLiga

YangelHerrera

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Real Sociedad
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Venezuela
Age
28
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Herrera at €6M. Model A, which never saw Herrera during training, estimates €3.2M: the market value is 87% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.87. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.63A €3.2M▲ +0.49B €3.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
50
Minutes
3,282
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
39/50
Min / app
66
Cards
14Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Herrera…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €3.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Yangel Herrera's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 59th, Assists per 90 56th, Minutes, two years 62nd, Starts 67th, Minutes, last 365 days 18th, European club minutes 72nd59thGoals56thAssists62ndMinutes67thStarts18thRecent72ndEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

10% this player0% midfielder median72nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Mar 2016
Peak
€25M
Jun 2024
Model target
€6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
6 club changes
Jun 2026€6MReal SociedadValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €6M, Real Sociedad. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-03-16€50kAtlético Venezuela
2016-05-10€100kAtlético Venezuela
2016-11-28€400kAtlético Venezuela
2017-01-30€900kAtlético Venezuela
2017-05-17€900kNew York City FC
2017-12-05€900kNew York City FC
2018-05-02€1.3MNew York City FC
2018-12-15€1MNew York City FC
2019-02-28€1.5MSD Huesca
2019-06-11€2MSD Huesca
2019-12-20€3MGranada CF
2020-03-05€10MGranada CF
2020-04-08€9MGranada CF
2020-10-08€10MGranada CF
2020-11-23€15MGranada CF
2021-01-05€15MGranada CF
2021-06-10€18MGranada CF
2021-12-30€18MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2022-06-03€14MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2022-11-07€9MGirona FC
2023-06-13€5MGirona FC
2023-10-13€10MGirona FC
2023-12-22€20MGirona FC
2024-06-07€25MGirona FC
2024-12-27€20MGirona FC
2025-06-09€15MGirona FC
2025-10-02€11MReal Sociedad
2025-12-12€9MReal Sociedad
2026-06-05€6MReal Sociedad

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.625

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 61% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 69% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Herrera appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).