FairValue

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Portrait of Curtis Jones

Curtis

Jones

CMEngland · Liverpool FC

№ 433188World Class €35.6M −0.02

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

CurtisJones

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Liverpool FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
25
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Jones at €35M. Model A, which never saw Jones during training, estimates €35.6M: the market value is 2% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €39.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.02A €35.6M▼ −0.12B €39.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
90
Minutes
4,912
Goals
6
Assists
9
Started
51/90
Min / app
55
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jones…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €35M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €35MModel A €35.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Curtis Jones's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 59th, Assists per 90 75th, Minutes, two years 85th, Starts 30th, Minutes, last 365 days 89th, European club minutes 79th59thGoals75thAssists85thMinutes30thStarts89thRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,850 this player1,541 midfielder median89th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1.5M
Aug 2019
Peak
€50M
Mar 2025
Model target
€35M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
1 club change
Jun 2026€35MLiverpool FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €35M, Liverpool FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-08-09€1.5MLiverpool FC U23
2019-12-10€2MLiverpool FC U23
2020-04-08€1.8MLiverpool FC U23
2020-07-30€5MLiverpool FC
2020-10-13€5MLiverpool FC
2020-12-17€17MLiverpool FC
2021-03-18€30MLiverpool FC
2021-06-08€30MLiverpool FC
2021-12-23€30MLiverpool FC
2022-06-15€28MLiverpool FC
2022-09-15€25MLiverpool FC
2022-11-03€22MLiverpool FC
2023-03-16€17MLiverpool FC
2023-06-20€22MLiverpool FC
2023-07-12€25MLiverpool FC
2023-10-09€30MLiverpool FC
2023-12-19€30MLiverpool FC
2024-03-14€35MLiverpool FC
2024-05-27€35MLiverpool FC
2024-12-16€45MLiverpool FC
2025-03-18€50MLiverpool FC
2025-05-30€45MLiverpool FC
2025-12-09€40MLiverpool FC
2026-03-09€35MLiverpool FC
2026-06-03€35MLiverpool FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.017

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 79% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 95% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Jones appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).