FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Gautier

Larsonneur

GKFrance · AS Saint-Étienne

№ 357047Established €3.3M −0.08

Player dossierLigue 1

GautierLarsonneur

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
AS Saint-Étienne
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
France
Age
28
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
11 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Larsonneur at €3M. Model A, which never saw Larsonneur during training, estimates €3.3M: the market value is 8% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €791k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.08A €3.3M▲ +1.33B €791k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
34
Minutes
3,033
Started
34/34
Min / app
89
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Larsonneur…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €3.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Gautier Larsonneur's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 55th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 54th, European club minutes 32nd55thMinutes62ndStarts54thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€800k
May 2018
Peak
€8M
Jan 2021
Model target
€3M
Dec 2025
Valuations
20
2 club changes
Dec 2025€3MAS Saint-ÉtienneValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €3M, AS Saint-Étienne. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-05-16€800kStade Brestois 29
2019-01-08€1MStade Brestois 29
2019-06-03€4MStade Brestois 29
2019-12-19€7MStade Brestois 29
2020-04-08€5.5MStade Brestois 29
2020-08-03€6.5MStade Brestois 29
2020-10-15€7MStade Brestois 29
2021-01-07€8MStade Brestois 29
2021-04-09€7MStade Brestois 29
2021-06-04€7MStade Brestois 29
2021-10-08€5MStade Brestois 29
2021-12-16€3.5MStade Brestois 29
2022-05-30€3MStade Brestois 29
2022-10-28€3MValenciennes FC
2023-06-16€3.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2023-12-13€3.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2024-06-11€4MAS Saint-Étienne
2024-12-10€3.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2025-06-03€3MAS Saint-Étienne
2025-12-11€3MAS Saint-Étienne

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.084

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 30% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 68% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Larsonneur appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).