Ivan
Provedel
GKItaly · SS Lazio
Close-up
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierSerie A
IvanProvedel
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- SS Lazio
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Italy
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 194 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Provedel at €3M. Model A, which never saw Provedel during training, estimates €2.6M: the market value is 15% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 61
- Minutes
- 5,490
- Started
- 61/61
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Provedel…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
5,490 this player2,790 goalkeeper median82nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Nov 2011
- Peak
- €14M
- Dec 2023
- Model target
- €3M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 36
- 9 club changes
May 2026: €3M, SS Lazio. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-11-08 | €50k | Udinese Primavera |
| 2012-03-18 | €75k | Udinese Primavera |
| 2013-06-06 | €75k | Chievo Primavera |
| 2014-02-28 | €250k | AC Pisa 1909 |
| 2014-07-17 | €350k | AC Perugia Calcio |
| 2015-02-10 | €450k | AC Perugia Calcio |
| 2015-06-29 | €450k | AC Perugia Calcio |
| 2015-12-28 | €500k | Modena FC |
| 2016-06-13 | €400k | Modena FC |
| 2016-12-19 | €500k | FC Pro Vercelli 1892 |
| 2017-06-09 | €800k | FC Pro Vercelli 1892 |
| 2017-12-21 | €900k | FC Empoli |
| 2018-06-18 | €900k | FC Empoli |
| 2018-12-20 | €1.2M | FC Empoli |
| 2019-06-06 | €900k | FC Empoli |
| 2019-12-30 | €450k | FC Empoli |
| 2020-04-08 | €350k | SS Juve Stabia |
| 2020-08-21 | €400k | SS Juve Stabia |
| 2020-12-29 | €1M | Spezia Calcio |
| 2021-03-23 | €2M | Spezia Calcio |
| 2021-06-03 | €2.5M | Spezia Calcio |
| 2021-10-14 | €1.7M | Spezia Calcio |
| 2021-12-28 | €2M | Spezia Calcio |
| 2022-03-15 | €3M | Spezia Calcio |
| 2022-06-07 | €3.5M | Spezia Calcio |
| 2022-09-27 | €5M | SS Lazio |
| 2022-11-11 | €7M | SS Lazio |
| 2023-03-21 | €12M | SS Lazio |
| 2023-06-15 | €12M | SS Lazio |
| 2023-12-20 | €14M | SS Lazio |
| 2024-06-05 | €14M | SS Lazio |
| 2024-12-18 | €14M | SS Lazio |
| 2025-03-25 | €7M | SS Lazio |
| 2025-06-17 | €3M | SS Lazio |
| 2025-12-23 | €3M | SS Lazio |
| 2026-05-29 | €3M | SS Lazio |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.144
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 29% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 68% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Provedel appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MkhitaryanCMInter Milan · Serie A€3M
- VrijCBInter Milan · Serie A€3M
- FreulerCMBologna FC 1909 · Serie A€3M
- GarciaLBUS Sassuolo · Serie A€3M
- StegenGKGirona FC · goalkeepers€3M
- VlachodimosGKSevilla FC · goalkeepers€3M
- SchwäbeGK1.FC Köln · goalkeepers€3M
- StrakoshaGKAEK Athens · goalkeepers€3M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).