FairValue

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Soner

Gönül

LBTürkiye · Samsunspor

№ 340967Emerging €767k −0.43

Player dossierSüper Lig

SonerGönül

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Samsunspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
28
Height
177 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gönül at €500k. Model A, which never saw Gönül during training, estimates €767k: the market value is 35% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €934k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.43A €767k▼ −0.62B €934k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
43
Minutes
1,277
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
11/43
Min / app
30
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gönül…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €767k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Soner Gönül's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 18th, Starts 0th, Minutes, last 365 days 23rd, European club minutes 62nd18thGoals17thAssists18thMinutes0thStarts23rdRecent62ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

1% this player0% defender median62nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jan 2015
Peak
€800k
Jun 2021
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
25
4 club changes
May 2026€500kSamsunsporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, Samsunspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-01-01€25kGalatasaray U19
2017-01-12€50kGalatasaray U21
2018-07-04€50kGalatasaray U21
2019-10-16€50kKeciörengücü
2020-02-04€75kKeciörengücü
2020-08-27€150kAnkara Keciörengücü
2020-12-30€600kAnkara Keciörengücü
2021-03-23€725kAnkara Keciörengücü
2021-06-02€800kAnkara Keciörengücü
2022-01-17€750kSamsunspor
2022-06-10€700kSamsunspor
2022-11-15€700kSamsunspor
2023-04-03€800kSamsunspor
2023-06-23€800kSamsunspor
2023-09-27€650kSamsunspor
2023-12-21€650kSamsunspor
2024-03-15€700kSamsunspor
2024-05-31€700kSamsunspor
2024-10-04€500kSamsunspor
2024-12-23€550kSamsunspor
2025-03-20€750kSamsunspor
2025-06-18€750kSamsunspor
2025-10-01€700kSamsunspor
2025-12-17€600kSamsunspor
2026-05-21€500kSamsunspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.428

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 20% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gönül appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).