FairValue

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Tyrell

Malacia

LBNetherlands · Manchester United

№ 339340Established €10.8M −0.99

Player dossierPremier League

TyrellMalacia

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Manchester United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
26
Height
169 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Malacia at €4M. Model A, which never saw Malacia during training, estimates €10.8M: the market value is 63% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.69. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.99A €10.8M▲ +0.71B €2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
23
Minutes
1,026
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
11/23
Min / app
45
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Malacia…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €10.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Tyrell Malacia's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 13th, Starts 6th, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 98th18thGoals17thAssists13thMinutes6thStarts2ndRecent98thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

40% this player0% defender median98th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jul 2017
Peak
€22M
Sept 2022
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
3 club changes
Jun 2026€4MManchester UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Manchester United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-01€200kFeyenoord Rotterdam
2018-01-17€800kFeyenoord Rotterdam
2018-03-27€1.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2018-06-12€2MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2018-10-04€3MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2018-12-28€3MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2019-03-13€2MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2019-06-12€3MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2019-12-18€2.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2020-03-12€3.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2020-04-08€3.2MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2020-10-14€3.2MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2021-01-06€4MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2021-03-09€6MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2021-05-19€7.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2021-10-04€9MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2022-01-05€10MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2022-03-17€11.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2022-06-08€17MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2022-09-15€22MManchester United
2022-11-03€22MManchester United
2023-06-20€22MManchester United
2023-12-19€18MManchester United
2024-05-27€18MManchester United
2024-12-16€15MManchester United
2025-03-28€12MPSV Eindhoven
2025-05-28€8MPSV Eindhoven
2025-12-09€5MManchester United
2026-06-03€4MManchester United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.990

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 16% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Malacia appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).