FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Manu

Morlanes

CMSpain · RCD Mallorca

№ 335225Established €3.4M −0.36

Player dossierLaLiga

ManuMorlanes

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
RCD Mallorca
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
27
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Morlanes at €2.4M. Model A, which never saw Morlanes during training, estimates €3.4M: the market value is 30% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.36A €3.4M▼ −0.18B €2.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
3,262
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
39/57
Min / app
57
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Morlanes…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.4MModel A €3.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Manu Morlanes's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 50th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 61st, Starts 49th, Minutes, last 365 days 60th, European club minutes 30th50thGoals8thAssists61stMinutes49thStarts60thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,262 this player2,607 midfielder median61st percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2017
Peak
€5M
Jun 2021
Model target
€2.4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
6 club changes
Jun 2026€2.4MRCD MallorcaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.4M, RCD Mallorca. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-02-02€50kVillarreal CF U19
2017-08-17€50kVillarreal CF B
2018-01-01€100kVillarreal CF B
2018-06-30€1MVillarreal CF B
2019-02-19€1.5MVillarreal CF
2019-06-11€2.5MVillarreal CF
2019-12-20€2MVillarreal CF
2020-04-08€1.8MVillarreal CF
2020-10-08€1.8MUD Almería
2021-01-08€3MUD Almería
2021-06-24€5MUD Almería
2021-12-30€5MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2022-06-03€5MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2022-11-07€4MVillarreal CF
2023-06-13€4MRCD Mallorca
2023-10-13€2.5MRCD Mallorca
2023-12-22€2.5MRCD Mallorca
2024-06-07€2.5MRCD Mallorca
2024-12-27€2.5MRCD Mallorca
2025-06-09€2.5MRCD Mallorca
2025-12-12€2.4MRCD Mallorca
2026-06-05€2.4MRCD Mallorca

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.358

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 33% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€2.4MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 51% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Morlanes appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).