FairValue

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Héctor

Bellerín

RBSpain · Real Betis Balompié

№ 191217Established €2.7M −0.10

Player dossierLaLiga

HéctorBellerín

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Real Betis Balompié
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
31
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bellerín at €2.4M. Model A, which never saw Bellerín during training, estimates €2.7M: the market value is 10% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.10A €2.7M▼ −0.14B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
2,746
Goals
2
Assists
5
Started
30/40
Min / app
69
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bellerín…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.4MModel A €2.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Héctor Bellerín's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 73rd, Assists per 90 91st, Minutes, two years 48th, Starts 35th, Minutes, last 365 days 61st, European club minutes 75th73rdGoals91stAssists48thMinutes35thStarts61stRecent75thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.16 this player0.04 defender median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Jun 2013
Peak
€40M
Mar 2018
Model target
€2.4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
34
6 club changes
Jun 2026€2.4MReal Betis BalompiéValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.4M, Real Betis Balompié. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-06-22€300kArsenal FC U21
2014-01-08€500kWatford FC
2015-02-12€1.5MArsenal FC
2015-07-01€5MArsenal FC
2016-02-09€13MArsenal FC
2016-06-01€18MArsenal FC
2016-08-01€18MArsenal FC
2016-10-24€20MArsenal FC
2017-02-20€25MArsenal FC
2017-06-28€30MArsenal FC
2018-01-02€35MArsenal FC
2018-03-23€40MArsenal FC
2018-05-28€40MArsenal FC
2018-12-19€40MArsenal FC
2019-06-13€40MArsenal FC
2019-12-10€40MArsenal FC
2020-04-08€32MArsenal FC
2020-10-13€32MArsenal FC
2020-12-17€28MArsenal FC
2021-03-18€25MArsenal FC
2021-06-08€25MArsenal FC
2021-10-13€20MReal Betis Balompié
2021-12-30€20MReal Betis Balompié
2022-06-03€20MReal Betis Balompié
2022-11-07€15MFC Barcelona
2023-03-02€8MSporting CP
2023-06-16€8MSporting CP
2023-12-22€7MReal Betis Balompié
2024-03-21€5MReal Betis Balompié
2024-06-07€4MReal Betis Balompié
2024-12-27€3MReal Betis Balompié
2025-06-09€2MReal Betis Balompié
2025-12-12€2.5MReal Betis Balompié
2026-06-05€2.4MReal Betis Balompié

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.103

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 33% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€2.4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bellerín appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).