FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Chiquinho

AMPortugal · Olympiacos Piraeus

№ 334557Established €7.6M −0.42

Player dossierSuper League

Chiquinho

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Olympiacos Piraeus
League
Super League
Nationality
Portugal
Age
30
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Chiquinho at €5M. Model A, which never saw Chiquinho during training, estimates €7.6M: the market value is 34% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.52. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.42A €7.6M▼ −0.17B €5.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
72
Minutes
4,717
Goals
12
Assists
10
Started
57/72
Min / app
66
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chiquinho…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €7.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Chiquinho's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 87th, Assists per 90 82nd, Minutes, two years 84th, Starts 69th, Minutes, last 365 days 71st, European club minutes 90th87thGoals82ndAssists84thMinutes69thStarts71stRecent90thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

24% this player0% midfielder median90th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jul 2015
Peak
€9M
Dec 2019
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
9 club changes
Jun 2026€5MOlympiacos PiraeusValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Olympiacos Piraeus. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-31€75kGondomar SC
2016-09-30€125kLeixões SC
2017-03-13€200kNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2017-09-08€300kAcadémica Coimbra
2018-02-23€600kAcadémica Coimbra
2018-06-29€750kAcadémica Coimbra
2019-01-11€1MMoreirense FC
2019-03-18€3MMoreirense FC
2019-06-07€6MMoreirense FC
2019-12-30€9MSL Benfica
2020-04-08€7MSL Benfica
2020-08-17€8MSL Benfica
2021-01-28€6MSL Benfica
2021-05-21€6MSL Benfica
2021-12-27€4MSC Braga
2022-03-31€4MGiresunspor
2022-06-01€4.5MGiresunspor
2022-11-01€4MSL Benfica
2023-03-02€6MSL Benfica
2023-06-16€6MSL Benfica
2023-12-27€5MSL Benfica
2024-03-06€4MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-05-30€4MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-12-18€4.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-05-23€5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-12-12€5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2026-06-04€5MOlympiacos Piraeus

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.419

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 93% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Chiquinho appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).