FairValue

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Pedro

Chirivella

DMSpain · Panathinaikos

№ 242273Established €3.9M +0.25

Player dossierSuper League

PedroChirivella

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Panathinaikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Spain
Age
29
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Chirivella at €5M. Model A, which never saw Chirivella during training, estimates €3.9M: the market value is 29% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.25A €3.9M▼ −0.15B €5.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
64
Minutes
4,934
Goals
0
Assists
4
Started
56/64
Min / app
77
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chirivella…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €3.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Pedro Chirivella's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 40th, Minutes, two years 85th, Starts 83rd, Minutes, last 365 days 82nd, European club minutes 83rd10thGoals40thAssists85thMinutes83rdStarts82ndRecent83rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,934 this player2,607 midfielder median85th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2015
Peak
€7M
May 2022
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
23
6 club changes
Jun 2026€5MPanathinaikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Panathinaikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-10-14€100kLiverpool FC U21
2017-01-18€500kGo Ahead Eagles
2017-06-07€500kGo Ahead Eagles
2018-01-17€600kWillem II Tilburg
2018-06-12€750kWillem II Tilburg
2019-02-01€800kExtremadura UD
2019-06-29€800kExtremadura UD
2020-04-08€650kLiverpool FC U23
2020-08-03€800kFC Nantes
2020-10-15€2.5MFC Nantes
2021-06-04€3.2MFC Nantes
2021-12-16€4MFC Nantes
2022-03-23€6MFC Nantes
2022-05-30€7MFC Nantes
2022-11-02€6MFC Nantes
2023-06-27€6MFC Nantes
2023-12-18€7MFC Nantes
2024-06-03€7MFC Nantes
2024-12-10€5MFC Nantes
2025-06-03€5MFC Nantes
2025-09-23€4.5MPanathinaikos
2025-12-12€5MPanathinaikos
2026-06-04€5MPanathinaikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.254

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 93% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Chirivella appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).