FairValue

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Portrait of Michele Di Gregorio

Michele Di

Gregorio

GKItaly · Juventus FC

№ 301238Elite €23.5M −0.85

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

Michele DiGregorio

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Juventus FC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
28
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gregorio at €10M. Model A, which never saw Gregorio during training, estimates €23.5M: the market value is 57% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €17.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.85A €23.5M▼ −0.58B €17.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
84
Minutes
7,514
Started
83/84
Min / app
89
Cards
2Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gregorio…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €23.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Michele Di Gregorio's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 96th, Starts 23rd, Minutes, last 365 days 93rd, European club minutes 86th96thMinutes23rdStarts93rdRecent86thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,514 this player2,790 goalkeeper median96th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Sept 2014
Peak
€18M
Jun 2024
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
28
5 club changes
May 2026€10MJuventus FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Juventus FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-09-16€75kInter Milan Primavera
2015-06-17€75kInter Milan Primavera
2015-11-27€50kInter Milan Primavera
2016-06-08€50kInter Milan Primavera
2017-06-26€150kInter Milan Primavera
2017-12-19€450kAC Renate
2018-06-20€600kAC Renate
2018-12-13€500kNovara Calcio 1908
2019-06-19€450kNovara Calcio 1908
2019-12-30€1.3MPordenone Calcio
2020-04-08€1MPordenone Calcio
2020-08-21€3MPordenone Calcio
2021-02-22€3MAC Monza
2021-06-24€3.5MAC Monza
2021-12-29€3.5MAC Monza
2022-06-06€3.8MAC Monza
2022-09-27€4.5MAC Monza
2022-11-11€4.5MAC Monza
2023-03-21€7MAC Monza
2023-06-15€8MAC Monza
2023-12-20€12MAC Monza
2024-03-12€15MAC Monza
2024-06-05€18MAC Monza
2024-12-18€18MJuventus FC
2025-06-17€18MJuventus FC
2025-12-23€18MJuventus FC
2026-03-24€14MJuventus FC
2026-05-29€10MJuventus FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.853

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 65% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 88% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gregorio appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).