FairValue

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Portrait of Ederson

Ederson

GKBrazil · Fenerbahce

№ 238223Elite €3.2M +1.13

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSüper Lig

Ederson

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Fenerbahce
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Brazil
Age
32
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ederson at €10M. Model A, which never saw Ederson during training, estimates €3.2M: the market value is 210% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.13A €3.2M▲ +1.21B €3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
73
Minutes
6,553
Started
73/73
Min / app
90
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ederson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €3.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Ederson's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 90th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 89th, European club minutes 92nd90thMinutes62ndStarts89thRecent92ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

28% this player0% goalkeeper median92nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Apr 2013
Peak
€70M
Jun 2019
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
34
3 club changes
May 2026€10MFenerbahceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Fenerbahce. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-04-03€300kRio Ave FC
2013-07-02€300kRio Ave FC
2014-07-25€900kRio Ave FC
2015-02-17€600kRio Ave FC
2015-07-01€1.2MSL Benfica
2016-02-24€1.2MSL Benfica
2016-07-29€7MSL Benfica
2017-02-22€12MSL Benfica
2017-06-26€22MSL Benfica
2017-10-23€25MManchester City
2018-01-02€35MManchester City
2018-03-23€45MManchester City
2018-05-28€50MManchester City
2018-10-17€60MManchester City
2018-12-19€60MManchester City
2019-06-13€70MManchester City
2019-12-10€70MManchester City
2020-04-08€56MManchester City
2020-10-13€56MManchester City
2021-03-18€56MManchester City
2021-06-08€50MManchester City
2021-12-23€50MManchester City
2022-06-15€45MManchester City
2022-11-03€45MManchester City
2023-06-20€40MManchester City
2023-12-19€40MManchester City
2024-05-27€35MManchester City
2024-12-16€30MManchester City
2025-03-18€25MManchester City
2025-05-30€20MManchester City
2025-10-01€18MFenerbahce
2025-12-17€15MFenerbahce
2026-03-05€13MFenerbahce
2026-05-21€10MFenerbahce

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.131

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 91% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 88% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ederson appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).