FairValue

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Adrián

Embarba

RWSpain · UD Almería

№ 288318Emerging €606k +0.50

Player dossierLaLiga

AdriánEmbarba

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
UD Almería
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
33
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
30 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Embarba at €1M. Model A, which never saw Embarba during training, estimates €606k: the market value is 65% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.65. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €348k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.50A €606k▲ +1.06B €348k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
58
Minutes
3,127
Goals
5
Assists
3
Started
35/58
Min / app
54
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Embarba…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €606k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Adrián Embarba's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 22nd, Assists per 90 26th, Minutes, two years 68th, Starts 52nd, Minutes, last 365 days 33rd, European club minutes 28th22ndGoals26thAssists68thMinutes52ndStarts33rdRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,127 this player2,242 attacker median68th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Oct 2013
Peak
€8M
Jul 2020
Model target
€1M
Dec 2025
Valuations
34
5 club changes
Dec 2025€1MUD AlmeríaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1M, UD Almería. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-10-08€200kRayo Vallecano B
2014-01-23€500kRayo Vallecano B
2014-07-20€500kRayo Vallecano
2014-10-24€300kRayo Vallecano
2015-01-23€300kRayo Vallecano
2015-07-01€1MRayo Vallecano
2016-02-22€1MRayo Vallecano
2016-07-15€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2017-01-24€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2017-06-29€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2018-01-01€2MRayo Vallecano
2018-03-02€2.5MRayo Vallecano
2018-05-30€2.5MRayo Vallecano
2018-12-21€3MRayo Vallecano
2019-02-28€3.5MRayo Vallecano
2019-06-11€4MRayo Vallecano
2019-12-20€4MRayo Vallecano
2020-02-11€7MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2020-04-08€5.5MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2020-07-23€8MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2020-10-08€7MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2021-01-08€7MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2021-06-24€7MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2021-12-30€6MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2022-03-21€5MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2022-06-03€4MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2022-11-07€3MUD Almería
2023-06-13€2.5MUD Almería
2023-12-22€2.5MUD Almería
2024-03-21€2MUD Almería
2024-06-07€1.8MUD Almería
2024-12-27€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2025-06-09€1.2MRayo Vallecano
2025-12-30€1MUD Almería

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.501

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 8% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 29% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Embarba appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).