FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Antonio

Raíllo

CBSpain · RCD Mallorca

№ 278296Emerging €936k +0.07

Player dossierLaLiga

AntonioRaíllo

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
RCD Mallorca
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
34
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Raíllo at €1M. Model A, which never saw Raíllo during training, estimates €936k: the market value is 7% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €607k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.07A €936k▲ +0.50B €607k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
61
Minutes
5,313
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
60/61
Min / app
87
Cards
11Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Raíllo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €936k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Antonio Raíllo's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 52nd, Assists per 90 36th, Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 93rd, Minutes, last 365 days 64th, European club minutes 30th52ndGoals36thAssists87thMinutes93rdStarts64thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

98% this player83% defender median93rd percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jul 2015
Peak
€4M
Jun 2023
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
2 club changes
Jun 2026€1MRCD MallorcaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, RCD Mallorca. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-01€200kRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2016-02-22€200kSD Ponferradina
2016-07-15€400kRCD Mallorca
2017-01-24€500kRCD Mallorca
2017-06-29€500kRCD Mallorca
2018-01-01€500kRCD Mallorca
2018-05-30€500kRCD Mallorca
2019-02-19€500kRCD Mallorca
2019-06-29€800kRCD Mallorca
2019-09-10€2.5MRCD Mallorca
2019-12-20€2.5MRCD Mallorca
2020-04-08€2MRCD Mallorca
2020-10-08€2MRCD Mallorca
2021-01-08€2MRCD Mallorca
2021-06-24€3MRCD Mallorca
2021-10-13€2MRCD Mallorca
2021-12-30€1.5MRCD Mallorca
2022-06-03€2MRCD Mallorca
2022-11-07€3MRCD Mallorca
2023-03-23€3.5MRCD Mallorca
2023-06-13€4MRCD Mallorca
2023-10-13€2.5MRCD Mallorca
2023-12-22€2.5MRCD Mallorca
2024-03-21€2MRCD Mallorca
2024-06-07€2MRCD Mallorca
2024-12-27€2MRCD Mallorca
2025-06-09€1.8MRCD Mallorca
2025-12-12€1.5MRCD Mallorca
2026-06-05€1MRCD Mallorca

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.066

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 8% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Raíllo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).