Marin
Pongracic
CBCroatia · ACF Fiorentina
Player dossierSerie A
MarinPongracic
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- ACF Fiorentina
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Croatia
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 193 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Serie AReading the valuation
The market values Pongracic at €6.5M. Model A, which never saw Pongracic during training, estimates €6.4M: the market value is 2% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 60
- Minutes
- 4,551
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 50/60
- Min / app
- 76
- Cards
- 17Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pongracic…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €6.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Minutes, last 365 days
Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
3,039 this player1,687 defender median89th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Aug 2016
- Peak
- €10M
- Jul 2020
- Model target
- €6.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 26
- 6 club changes
May 2026: €6.5M, ACF Fiorentina. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-08-23 | €25k | FC Ingolstadt 04 U19 |
| 2017-06-27 | €250k | TSV 1860 Munich |
| 2017-07-02 | €500k | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2017-10-11 | €900k | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2018-01-02 | €1.5M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2018-06-14 | €2.5M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2018-10-25 | €5M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2018-12-19 | €7.5M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2019-06-03 | €7.5M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2019-12-16 | €6M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2020-02-11 | €9M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2020-04-08 | €7M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2020-07-08 | €10M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2021-02-10 | €10M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2021-06-09 | €8.5M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2021-12-22 | €7.5M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2022-06-09 | €6M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2022-11-11 | €6M | US Lecce |
| 2023-06-15 | €4M | US Lecce |
| 2023-12-20 | €6M | US Lecce |
| 2024-06-05 | €7M | US Lecce |
| 2024-10-18 | €10M | ACF Fiorentina |
| 2024-12-18 | €10M | ACF Fiorentina |
| 2025-06-17 | €10M | ACF Fiorentina |
| 2025-12-23 | €7.5M | ACF Fiorentina |
| 2026-05-29 | €6.5M | ACF Fiorentina |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.018
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 54% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 76% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Pongracic appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GaetanoDMCagliari Calcio · Serie A€6.5M
- HarrisonLWACF Fiorentina · Serie A€6.5M
- StrefezzaRWParma Calcio 1913 · Serie A€6.5M
- SørensenCMParma Calcio 1913 · Serie A€6.5M
- BardakcıCBGalatasaray · defenders€6.5M
- JanseCBFC Groningen · defenders€6.5M
- HenrichsRBRB Leipzig · defenders€7M
- RobertsonLBLiverpool FC · defenders€7M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).