FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Robert

Skov

LMDenmark · 1.FC Union Berlin

№ 270393Established €1.2M +0.51

Player dossierBundesliga

RobertSkov

LMLeft MidfieldMidfield

Club
1.FC Union Berlin
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
30
Height
185 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Skov at €2M. Model A, which never saw Skov during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 66% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.66. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €491k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.51A €1.2M▲ +1.40B €491k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
1,204
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
16/20
Min / app
60
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Skov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Robert Skov's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 86th, Assists per 90 70th, Minutes, two years 18th, Starts 70th, Minutes, last 365 days 7th, European club minutes 30th86thGoals70thAssists18thMinutes70thStarts7thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.22 this player0.08 midfielder median86th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2014
Peak
€14M
Jul 2020
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
30
4 club changes
May 2026€2M1.FC Union BerlinValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, 1.FC Union Berlin. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-06-26€50kSilkeborg IF U19
2015-02-06€150kSilkeborg IF
2015-09-02€150kSilkeborg IF
2016-01-25€150kSilkeborg IF
2016-08-12€350kSilkeborg IF
2016-12-12€600kSilkeborg IF
2017-06-21€700kSilkeborg IF
2017-12-18€1MSilkeborg IF
2018-06-02€1.3MFC Copenhagen
2018-12-21€5MFC Copenhagen
2019-06-08€13MFC Copenhagen
2019-12-17€13MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2020-04-08€10.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2020-07-08€14MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-02-10€11MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-05-26€10MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-10-07€8MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-12-22€8MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2022-06-09€7MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2022-11-09€9MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2023-06-22€6.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2023-12-14€6.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2024-05-29€5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2024-10-09€3M1.FC Union Berlin
2024-12-20€3M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-03-27€4M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-06-05€4M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-12-19€3M1.FC Union Berlin
2026-03-20€2.5M1.FC Union Berlin
2026-05-27€2M1.FC Union Berlin

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.507

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 19% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Skov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).