FairValue

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Arne

Maier

CMGermany · FC Augsburg

№ 296397Established €4.1M −0.72

Player dossierBundesliga

ArneMaier

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Augsburg
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
26
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
19 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Maier at €2M. Model A, which never saw Maier during training, estimates €4.1M: the market value is 51% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.72A €4.1M▲ +0.23B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
2,049
Goals
3
Assists
5
Started
18/51
Min / app
40
Cards
1Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Maier…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €4.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Arne Maier's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 88th, Minutes, two years 38th, Starts 8th, Minutes, last 365 days 13th, European club minutes 30th67thGoals88thAssists38thMinutes8thStarts13thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.22 this player0.09 midfielder median88th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jul 2017
Peak
€24M
Jun 2019
Model target
€2M
Dec 2025
Valuations
27
2 club changes
Dec 2025€2MFC AugsburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €2M, FC Augsburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-12€200kHertha BSC
2017-12-28€2.5MHertha BSC
2018-04-04€7.5MHertha BSC
2018-06-05€7.5MHertha BSC
2018-10-22€15MHertha BSC
2018-12-18€15MHertha BSC
2019-03-06€22MHertha BSC
2019-06-05€24MHertha BSC
2019-12-17€20MHertha BSC
2020-03-11€17MHertha BSC
2020-04-08€15.5MHertha BSC
2020-09-16€13.5MHertha BSC
2020-11-26€10MArminia Bielefeld
2021-02-10€5MArminia Bielefeld
2021-06-09€7MArminia Bielefeld
2021-10-07€5MFC Augsburg
2021-12-22€5MFC Augsburg
2022-06-09€5.5MFC Augsburg
2022-11-09€5.5MFC Augsburg
2023-06-22€6.5MFC Augsburg
2023-10-18€4.5MFC Augsburg
2023-12-14€4.5MFC Augsburg
2024-05-29€5MFC Augsburg
2024-12-20€4MFC Augsburg
2025-06-05€4MFC Augsburg
2025-10-14€3MFC Augsburg
2025-12-19€2MFC Augsburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.722

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 19% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Maier appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).