FairValue

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Fahd

Moufi

RBMorocco · FC Orenburg

№ 265589Emerging €1M −0.11

Player dossierPremier Liga

FahdMoufi

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
FC Orenburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Morocco
Age
30
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Moufi at €900k. Model A, which never saw Moufi during training, estimates €1M: the market value is 10% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €865k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.11A €1M▲ +0.04B €865k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
2,134
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
25/25
Min / app
85
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moufi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €900kModel A €1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Fahd Moufi's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 58th, Assists per 90 52nd, Minutes, two years 36th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 66th, European club minutes 30th58thGoals52ndAssists36thMinutes97thStarts66thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Feb 2017
Peak
€1.5M
May 2022
Model target
€900k
May 2026
Valuations
22
5 club changes
May 2026€900kFC OrenburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €900k, FC Orenburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-02-20€150kCS Sedan-Ardennes
2017-08-21€150kCD Tondela
2018-02-07€200kCD Tondela
2018-06-13€200kCD Tondela
2019-01-11€250kCD Tondela
2019-06-07€300kCD Tondela
2019-10-11€500kCD Tondela
2019-12-30€700kCD Tondela
2020-04-08€550kCD Tondela
2020-08-17€800kCD Tondela
2021-01-28€800kPortimonense SAD
2021-05-21€900kPortimonense SAD
2021-12-27€1.2MPortimonense SAD
2022-05-31€1.5MPortimonense SAD
2022-11-01€1.5MPortimonense SAD
2023-06-16€1.5MPortimonense SAD
2023-12-18€1.5MHNK Hajduk Split
2024-06-04€1.5MHNK Hajduk Split
2024-12-23€1MHNK Hajduk Split
2025-05-28€1MWydad Casablanca
2025-12-16€900kFC Orenburg
2026-05-26€900kFC Orenburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.106

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 39% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 33% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Moufi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).