FairValue

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Portrait of Jefferson Lerma

Jefferson

Lerma

DMColombia · Crystal Palace

№ 262980Established €4.7M +0.25

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JeffersonLerma

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Crystal Palace
League
Premier League
Nationality
Colombia
Age
31
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lerma at €6M. Model A, which never saw Lerma during training, estimates €4.7M: the market value is 29% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.25A €4.7M▲ +0.14B €5.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
77
Minutes
4,660
Goals
0
Assists
7
Started
50/77
Min / app
61
Cards
17Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lerma…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €4.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jefferson Lerma's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 66th, Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 42nd, Minutes, last 365 days 66th, European club minutes 64th10thGoals66thAssists83rdMinutes42ndStarts66thRecent64thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,660 this player2,607 midfielder median83rd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2015
Peak
€25M
Aug 2018
Model target
€6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
2 club changes
Jun 2026€6MCrystal PalaceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €6M, Crystal Palace. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-08-25€200kLevante UD
2015-11-22€1MLevante UD
2016-02-22€1.5MLevante UD
2016-07-15€1.5MLevante UD
2017-01-24€1.2MLevante UD
2017-06-29€1.5MLevante UD
2018-01-01€1.5MLevante UD
2018-05-30€2MLevante UD
2018-08-13€25MAFC Bournemouth
2018-12-19€25MAFC Bournemouth
2019-06-13€25MAFC Bournemouth
2019-12-10€25MAFC Bournemouth
2020-04-08€20MAFC Bournemouth
2020-10-15€17MAFC Bournemouth
2020-12-22€15MAFC Bournemouth
2021-03-10€15MAFC Bournemouth
2021-06-30€15MAFC Bournemouth
2021-11-24€15MAFC Bournemouth
2022-05-13€15MAFC Bournemouth
2022-11-03€15MAFC Bournemouth
2023-06-20€20MAFC Bournemouth
2023-12-19€20MCrystal Palace
2024-05-27€20MCrystal Palace
2024-10-01€18MCrystal Palace
2024-12-16€14MCrystal Palace
2025-03-18€12MCrystal Palace
2025-05-30€10MCrystal Palace
2025-12-09€8MCrystal Palace
2026-06-03€6MCrystal Palace

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.252

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 23% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 69% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lerma appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).