FairValue

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Álvaro

Fidalgo

CMMexico · Real Betis Balompié

№ 261503Established €3M +0.70

Player dossierLaLiga

ÁlvaroFidalgo

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Real Betis Balompié
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Mexico
Age
29
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fidalgo at €6M. Model A, which never saw Fidalgo during training, estimates €3M: the market value is 102% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.70A €3M▲ +1.30B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
13
Minutes
749
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
10/13
Min / app
58
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fidalgo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Álvaro Fidalgo's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 62nd, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 7th, Starts 65th, Minutes, last 365 days 22nd, European club minutes 85th62ndGoals8thAssists7thMinutes65thStarts22ndRecent85thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

21% this player0% midfielder median85th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2016
Peak
€10M
Mar 2026
Model target
€6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
4 club changes
Jun 2026€6MReal Betis BalompiéValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €6M, Real Betis Balompié. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-01€50kCF Rayo Majadahonda
2016-10-27€200kCF Rayo Majadahonda
2017-02-02€250kCF Rayo Majadahonda
2017-06-30€250kReal Madrid Castilla
2018-01-01€150kReal Madrid Castilla
2018-05-30€150kReal Madrid Castilla
2019-02-19€200kReal Madrid Castilla
2019-06-29€300kReal Madrid Castilla
2019-09-10€300kReal Madrid Castilla
2020-02-11€300kReal Madrid Castilla
2020-10-08€300kCD Castellón
2020-11-23€400kCD Castellón
2021-01-08€400kCD Castellón
2021-04-21€1MCF América
2021-10-15€3.5MCF América
2022-04-11€4MCF América
2022-09-08€6MCF América
2022-10-31€6MCF América
2023-03-30€7MCF América
2023-06-29€7MCF América
2023-12-29€8MCF América
2024-06-14€8MCF América
2024-10-10€7.5MCF América
2024-12-11€8MCF América
2025-03-31€8.5MCF América
2025-05-26€9MCF América
2025-12-29€8.5MCF América
2026-03-16€10MReal Betis Balompié
2026-06-05€6MReal Betis Balompié

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.703

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 61% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 69% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fidalgo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).