FairValue

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Liam

Gordon

CBScotland · Motherwell FC

№ 238029Emerging €217k +0.14

Player dossierPremiership

LiamGordon

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Motherwell FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
30
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gordon at €250k. Model A, which never saw Gordon during training, estimates €217k: the market value is 15% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €857k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.14A €217k▼ −1.23B €857k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
3,258
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
37/42
Min / app
78
Cards
6Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gordon…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €217k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Liam Gordon's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 46th, Assists per 90 42nd, Minutes, two years 58th, Starts 64th, Minutes, last 365 days 27th, European club minutes 30th46thGoals42ndAssists58thMinutes64thStarts27thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

88% this player83% defender median64th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2013
Peak
€550k
Dec 2021
Model target
€250k
May 2026
Valuations
24
2 club changes
May 2026€250kMotherwell FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €250k, Motherwell FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-10-08€50kHeart of Midlothian FC U20
2014-02-13€50kHeart of Midlothian FC U20
2014-10-06€50kHeart of Midlothian FC U20
2016-12-30€50kSt. Johnstone FC
2018-03-04€50kSt. Johnstone FC
2018-08-08€150kSt. Johnstone FC
2019-01-03€150kSt. Johnstone FC
2019-08-20€200kSt. Johnstone FC
2020-02-05€200kSt. Johnstone FC
2020-07-21€300kSt. Johnstone FC
2021-01-18€400kSt. Johnstone FC
2021-06-28€500kSt. Johnstone FC
2021-12-31€550kSt. Johnstone FC
2022-06-27€500kSt. Johnstone FC
2022-12-13€500kSt. Johnstone FC
2023-06-26€500kSt. Johnstone FC
2023-12-05€500kSt. Johnstone FC
2024-05-30€500kSt. Johnstone FC
2024-12-03€500kMotherwell FC
2025-06-17€450kMotherwell FC
2025-10-08€400kMotherwell FC
2025-12-10€400kMotherwell FC
2026-03-05€350kMotherwell FC
2026-05-20€250kMotherwell FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.140

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 32% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 7% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gordon appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).