FairValue

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Mansur

CBBrazil · Atromitos Athens

№ 211345Emerging €386k −0.44

Player dossierSuper League

Mansur

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Atromitos Athens
League
Super League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
33
Height
181 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mansur at €250k. Model A, which never saw Mansur during training, estimates €386k: the market value is 35% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.55. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €522k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.44A €386k▼ −0.74B €522k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
3,681
Goals
4
Assists
1
Started
42/44
Min / app
84
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mansur…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €386k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Mansur's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 86th, Assists per 90 40th, Minutes, two years 64th, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 60th, European club minutes 30th86thGoals40thAssists64thMinutes85thStarts60thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.10 this player0.03 defender median86th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Mar 2013
Peak
€800k
May 2021
Model target
€250k
Jun 2026
Valuations
23
9 club changes
Jun 2026€250kAtromitos AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €250k, Atromitos Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-03-06€150kEsporte Clube Vitória
2014-08-07€200kEsporte Clube Vitória
2015-05-31€200kEsporte Clube Vitória
2015-09-11€400kClube Atlético Mineiro
2015-12-15€500kClube Atlético Mineiro
2016-05-27€500kClube Atlético Mineiro
2016-11-28€250kSport Club do Recife
2017-12-07€200kClube Atlético Mineiro
2018-05-23€700kParaná Clube
2020-04-08€550kClube Atlético Mineiro
2020-08-17€550kCD Santa Clara
2021-01-28€600kCD Santa Clara
2021-05-21€800kCD Santa Clara
2021-12-27€750kCD Santa Clara
2022-05-31€700kCD Santa Clara
2022-10-07€500kWithout Club
2023-06-28€400kCF Estrela Amadora
2023-12-27€400kCF Estrela Amadora
2024-06-06€400kCF Estrela Amadora
2024-12-18€350kAtromitos Athens
2025-05-23€300kAtromitos Athens
2025-12-12€300kAtromitos Athens
2026-06-04€250kAtromitos Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.435

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 15% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 7% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mansur appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).