Craig
Sibbald
DMScotland · Dundee United FC
Player dossierPremiership
CraigSibbald
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Dundee United FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Scotland
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 170 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Sibbald at €250k. Model A, which never saw Sibbald during training, estimates €214k: the market value is 17% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 43
- Minutes
- 3,004
- Goals
- 5
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 33/43
- Min / app
- 70
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sibbald…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
11% this player0% midfielder median72nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Aug 2011
- Peak
- €400k
- Jan 2021
- Model target
- €250k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 26
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €250k, Dundee United FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-08-15 | €25k | Falkirk FC |
| 2012-02-02 | €200k | Falkirk FC |
| 2012-07-26 | €225k | Falkirk FC |
| 2013-10-08 | €225k | Falkirk FC |
| 2014-10-06 | €225k | Falkirk FC |
| 2015-11-23 | €350k | Falkirk FC |
| 2016-11-07 | €350k | Falkirk FC |
| 2018-01-25 | €325k | Falkirk FC |
| 2018-08-08 | €325k | Livingston FC |
| 2019-01-03 | €300k | Livingston FC |
| 2019-08-20 | €375k | Livingston FC |
| 2020-02-05 | €300k | Livingston FC |
| 2021-01-18 | €400k | Livingston FC |
| 2021-06-28 | €400k | Livingston FC |
| 2021-12-31 | €350k | Livingston FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €300k | Livingston FC |
| 2022-12-13 | €300k | Dundee United FC |
| 2023-03-22 | €400k | Dundee United FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €375k | Dundee United FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €350k | Dundee United FC |
| 2024-06-21 | €350k | Dundee United FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €350k | Dundee United FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €350k | Dundee United FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €350k | Dundee United FC |
| 2026-03-05 | €300k | Dundee United FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €250k | Dundee United FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.155
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 32% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 5% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Sibbald appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- FraserRBSt. Mirren FC · Premiership€250k
- NilsenDMAberdeen FC · Premiership€250k
- GordonCBMotherwell FC · Premiership€250k
- KiltieLWKilmarnock FC · Premiership€250k
- FalkCMOdense Boldklub · midfielders€250k
- BabenkoCMPolissya Zhytomyr · midfielders€250k
- SydorchukDMKVC Westerlo · midfielders€250k
- StambouliDMFC Metz · midfielders€250k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).