FairValue

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Portrait of Nadiem Amiri

Nadiem

Amiri

CMGermany · 1.FSV Mainz 05

№ 232454Elite €12.3M +0.32

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

NadiemAmiri

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
1.FSV Mainz 05
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
29
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Amiri at €17M. Model A, which never saw Amiri during training, estimates €12.3M: the market value is 38% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.32A €12.3M▲ +0.91B €6.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
62
Minutes
5,101
Goals
23
Assists
9
Started
60/62
Min / app
82
Cards
17Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Amiri…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €17M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €17MModel A €12.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Nadiem Amiri's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 98th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 96th, Minutes, last 365 days 78th, European club minutes 63rd98thGoals74thAssists87thMinutes96thStarts78thRecent63rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.41 this player0.08 midfielder median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2014
Peak
€22M
Feb 2021
Model target
€17M
May 2026
Valuations
32
4 club changes
May 2026€17M1.FSV Mainz 05Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €17M, 1.FSV Mainz 05. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-09-08€100kTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2015-02-04€350kTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2015-07-01€1MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2016-02-15€1.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2016-07-22€4MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2017-02-07€7MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2017-06-19€10MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2017-12-28€15MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2018-06-05€17MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2018-12-18€17MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2019-06-05€17MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2019-10-02€15MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2019-12-17€20MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2020-04-08€16MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2021-02-10€22MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2021-06-09€18MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2021-10-07€15MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2021-12-22€11MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2022-03-15€9MGenoa CFC
2022-06-07€8MGenoa CFC
2022-09-21€6MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2022-11-09€6MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2023-06-22€6MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2023-10-18€4MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2023-12-14€4MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2024-05-29€7M1.FSV Mainz 05
2024-10-09€9M1.FSV Mainz 05
2024-12-20€11M1.FSV Mainz 05
2025-03-27€18M1.FSV Mainz 05
2025-06-05€20M1.FSV Mainz 05
2025-12-19€17M1.FSV Mainz 05
2026-05-27€17M1.FSV Mainz 05

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.323

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 78% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€17MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 87% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€17MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Amiri appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).