FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Thomas Partey

Thomas

Partey

DMGhana · Villarreal CF

№ 230784Established €4.4M −0.79

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

ThomasPartey

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Villarreal CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Ghana
Age
32
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Partey at €2M. Model A, which never saw Partey during training, estimates €4.4M: the market value is 55% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.79A €4.4M▼ −0.68B €4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
80
Minutes
5,044
Goals
4
Assists
3
Started
55/80
Min / app
63
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Partey…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €4.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Thomas Partey's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 30th, Minutes, two years 86th, Starts 49th, Minutes, last 365 days 43rd, European club minutes 90th44thGoals30thAssists86thMinutes49thStarts43rdRecent90thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

23% this player0% midfielder median90th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Aug 2013
Peak
€50M
Feb 2019
Model target
€2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
35
4 club changes
Jun 2026€2MVillarreal CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2M, Villarreal CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-08-07€400kRCD Mallorca
2013-10-08€600kRCD Mallorca
2014-02-06€1MRCD Mallorca
2014-07-31€1MUD Almería
2015-01-23€2.5MUD Almería
2015-07-01€4MAtlético de Madrid
2016-02-22€5MAtlético de Madrid
2016-07-15€5MAtlético de Madrid
2017-01-24€4.5MAtlético de Madrid
2017-06-05€4.5MAtlético de Madrid
2018-01-01€8MAtlético de Madrid
2018-03-22€15MAtlético de Madrid
2018-05-30€25MAtlético de Madrid
2018-10-31€35MAtlético de Madrid
2018-12-21€40MAtlético de Madrid
2019-02-28€50MAtlético de Madrid
2019-06-11€50MAtlético de Madrid
2019-12-20€50MAtlético de Madrid
2020-04-08€40MAtlético de Madrid
2020-10-13€50MArsenal FC
2021-03-18€45MArsenal FC
2021-06-08€40MArsenal FC
2021-12-23€40MArsenal FC
2022-06-15€38MArsenal FC
2022-11-03€38MArsenal FC
2023-06-20€35MArsenal FC
2023-12-19€25MArsenal FC
2024-03-14€20MArsenal FC
2024-05-27€18MArsenal FC
2024-12-16€15MArsenal FC
2025-05-30€14MArsenal FC
2025-10-02€8MVillarreal CF
2025-12-12€5MVillarreal CF
2026-03-16€2.5MVillarreal CF
2026-06-05€2MVillarreal CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.789

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 28% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Partey appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).