Alex
Gogic
CBCyprus · St. Mirren FC
Player dossierPremiership
AlexGogic
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- St. Mirren FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Cyprus
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Gogic at €200k. Model A, which never saw Gogic during training, estimates €405k: the market value is 51% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 71
- Minutes
- 6,358
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 70/71
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 24Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gogic…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
6,358 this player2,860 defender median95th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Mar 2018
- Peak
- €500k
- Jan 2021
- Model target
- €200k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 19
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €200k, St. Mirren FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-04 | €250k | Hamilton Academical FC |
| 2018-08-08 | €250k | Hamilton Academical FC |
| 2019-01-03 | €250k | Hamilton Academical FC |
| 2019-08-20 | €250k | Hamilton Academical FC |
| 2020-02-05 | €300k | Hamilton Academical FC |
| 2020-07-21 | €300k | Hibernian FC |
| 2021-01-18 | €500k | Hibernian FC |
| 2021-06-28 | €500k | Hibernian FC |
| 2021-12-31 | €400k | Hibernian FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €400k | Hibernian FC |
| 2022-12-13 | €400k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €400k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €450k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €500k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €450k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €450k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €400k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2026-03-05 | €250k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €200k | St. Mirren FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.706
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 26% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 5% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Gogic appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- HanleyCBHibernian FC · Premiership€200k
- ArmstrongCMAberdeen FC · Premiership€200k
- DevlinRBAberdeen FC · Premiership€200k
- NewellCMHibernian FC · Premiership€200k
- CaroleLBKayserispor · defenders€200k
- ZankaCBFC Copenhagen · defenders€200k
- BambaCBAngers SCO · defenders€200k
- ColemanRBEverton FC · defenders€200k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).