Liam
Donnelly
Player dossierPremiership
LiamDonnelly
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- St. Mirren FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Northern Ireland
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 181 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Donnelly at €200k. Model A, which never saw Donnelly during training, estimates €239k: the market value is 16% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 45
- Minutes
- 2,287
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 27/45
- Min / app
- 51
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Donnelly…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
20% this player0% midfielder median84th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €75k
- Aug 2018
- Peak
- €600k
- Feb 2020
- Model target
- €200k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 18
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €200k, St. Mirren FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-08-08 | €75k | Motherwell FC |
| 2019-01-03 | €200k | Motherwell FC |
| 2019-08-20 | €200k | Motherwell FC |
| 2020-02-05 | €600k | Motherwell FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €475k | Motherwell FC |
| 2020-07-21 | €600k | Motherwell FC |
| 2021-01-18 | €600k | Motherwell FC |
| 2021-06-28 | €600k | Motherwell FC |
| 2021-12-31 | €500k | Motherwell FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €400k | Motherwell FC |
| 2022-12-13 | €350k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €350k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €300k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €350k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €350k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €300k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €350k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €200k | St. Mirren FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.179
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 26% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 3% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Donnelly appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- HanleyCBHibernian FC · Premiership€200k
- ArmstrongCMAberdeen FC · Premiership€200k
- DevlinRBAberdeen FC · Premiership€200k
- NewellCMHibernian FC · Premiership€200k
- CazorlaCMReal Oviedo · midfielders€200k
- KvekveskiriDMFC Orenburg · midfielders€200k
- VillafañezAMAE Kifisia · midfielders€200k
- ChurkoAMMetalist 1925 Kharkiv · midfielders€200k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).