FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Mijat

Gacinovic

AMSerbia · AEK Athens

№ 215864Emerging €1.7M −0.12

Player dossierSuper League

MijatGacinovic

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
AEK Athens
League
Super League
Nationality
Serbia
Age
31
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gacinovic at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Gacinovic during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 11% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €998k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.12A €1.7M▲ +0.41B €998k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
1,945
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
19/45
Min / app
43
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gacinovic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mijat Gacinovic's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 69th, Assists per 90 27th, Minutes, two years 35th, Starts 14th, Minutes, last 365 days 29th, European club minutes 90th69thGoals27thAssists35thMinutes14thStarts29thRecent90thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

24% this player0% midfielder median90th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
May 2013
Peak
€11M
Jun 2019
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
4 club changes
Jun 2026€1.5MAEK AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-05-28€250kFK Vojvodina Novi Sad
2013-11-15€400kFK Vojvodina Novi Sad
2014-11-11€1MFK Vojvodina Novi Sad
2015-06-15€1.8MFK Vojvodina Novi Sad
2016-02-15€1.5MEintracht Frankfurt
2016-07-22€1.5MEintracht Frankfurt
2017-02-07€2MEintracht Frankfurt
2017-06-19€3.5MEintracht Frankfurt
2017-12-28€5MEintracht Frankfurt
2018-04-04€8MEintracht Frankfurt
2018-06-05€8MEintracht Frankfurt
2018-12-18€9MEintracht Frankfurt
2019-06-05€11MEintracht Frankfurt
2019-12-17€9MEintracht Frankfurt
2020-04-08€7MEintracht Frankfurt
2020-09-16€6MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-02-10€5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-06-09€3.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-12-22€2.8MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2022-06-09€2.5MPanathinaikos
2022-11-07€3MAEK Athens
2023-05-22€3.5MAEK Athens
2023-12-20€3.5MAEK Athens
2024-05-30€3MAEK Athens
2024-12-18€2.5MAEK Athens
2025-05-23€2MAEK Athens
2025-12-12€1.8MAEK Athens
2026-06-04€1.5MAEK Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.121

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 73% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gacinovic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).