FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Eddie

Salcedo

CFItaly · OFI Crete

№ 459661Emerging €2.6M −0.56

Player dossierSuper League

EddieSalcedo

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
OFI Crete
League
Super League
Nationality
Italy
Age
24
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Salcedo at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Salcedo during training, estimates €2.6M: the market value is 43% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.56A €2.6M▼ −0.93B €3.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
3,339
Goals
18
Assists
4
Started
37/56
Min / app
60
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Salcedo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €2.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Eddie Salcedo's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 86th, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 71st, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 75th, European club minutes 28th86thGoals35thAssists71stMinutes62ndStarts75thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.49 this player0.26 attacker median86th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2M
Mar 2018
Peak
€10M
Aug 2020
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
21
8 club changes
Jun 2026€1.5MOFI CreteValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, OFI Crete. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-03-24€2MGenoa CFC
2018-06-07€2MGenoa CFC
2019-06-17€2MInter Milan Primavera
2019-12-12€9MHellas Verona
2020-04-08€8MHellas Verona
2020-08-25€10MHellas Verona
2020-12-29€9.5MHellas Verona
2021-03-23€8.5MHellas Verona
2021-06-03€8.5MHellas Verona
2021-12-28€6MSpezia Calcio
2022-03-15€4.5MSpezia Calcio
2022-06-07€3.5MSpezia Calcio
2022-12-22€2.7MSSC Bari
2023-06-12€2.5MGenoa CFC
2023-12-20€1.5MCD Eldense
2024-06-03€1MCalcio Lecco 1912
2024-12-18€1MOFI Crete
2025-05-23€1MOFI Crete
2025-12-12€1MOFI Crete
2026-03-06€1.2MOFI Crete
2026-06-04€1.5MOFI Crete

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.557

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 73% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Salcedo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).