Marcelo
CBBrazil · Moreirense FC
Player dossierLiga Portugal
Marcelo
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Moreirense FC
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 36
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 18 Dec 2025
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Marcelo at €100k. Model A, which never saw Marcelo during training, estimates €102k: the market value is 2% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €114k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 45
- Minutes
- 4,050
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 45/45
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 8Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Marcelo…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player83% defender median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Feb 2012
- Peak
- €3M
- Jun 2018
- Model target
- €100k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 29
- 7 club changes
Dec 2025: €100k, Moreirense FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-02-02 | €200k | Leixões SC |
| 2013-04-03 | €1M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2013-07-02 | €1.5M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2014-07-25 | €2M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2015-02-17 | €1.7M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2015-07-01 | €1.7M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2016-02-24 | €1.7M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2016-07-29 | €1.7M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2017-02-22 | €1.7M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2017-06-26 | €1.7M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2018-02-07 | €2M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2018-06-13 | €3M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2019-01-11 | €1M | Chicago Fire |
| 2019-03-20 | €600k | Chicago Fire |
| 2019-05-27 | €600k | Chicago Fire |
| 2019-11-30 | €500k | Chicago Fire FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €400k | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2020-08-17 | €400k | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2021-01-28 | €500k | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2021-05-21 | €500k | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2022-01-06 | €450k | Al-Tai FC |
| 2022-06-30 | €400k | Al-Tai FC |
| 2022-12-15 | €250k | Dibba Al-Fujairah Club |
| 2023-05-31 | €200k | Dibba Al-Fujairah Club |
| 2023-12-27 | €200k | Moreirense FC |
| 2024-06-06 | €100k | Moreirense FC |
| 2024-12-19 | €100k | Moreirense FC |
| 2025-05-30 | €100k | Moreirense FC |
| 2025-12-18 | €100k | Moreirense FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.021
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 2% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 1% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Marcelo appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- FonteCBCasa Pia AC · Liga Portugal€100k
- SimãoCMFC Arouca · Liga Portugal€100k
- RibeiroGKCF Estrela Amadora · Liga Portugal€100k
- RochaCBCD Santa Clara · Liga Portugal€100k
- NeustädterCBKVC Westerlo · defenders€100k
- SarıCBAntalyaspor · defenders€100k
- DalsgaardRBAarhus GF · defenders€100k
- TanchykRBEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi · defenders€100k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).