FairValue

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Tomasz

Kędziora

RBPoland · PAOK Thessaloniki

№ 181118Established €2.5M −0.24

Player dossierSuper League

TomaszKędziora

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
PAOK Thessaloniki
League
Super League
Nationality
Poland
Age
31
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kędziora at €2M. Model A, which never saw Kędziora during training, estimates €2.5M: the market value is 21% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.24A €2.5M▼ −0.57B €3.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
74
Minutes
6,676
Goals
0
Assists
3
Started
73/74
Min / app
90
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kędziora…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €2.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Tomasz Kędziora's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 51st, Minutes, two years 97th, Starts 94th, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 97th18thGoals51stAssists97thMinutes94thStarts92ndRecent97thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

35% this player0% defender median97th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2012
Peak
€5M
May 2021
Model target
€2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
31
4 club changes
Jun 2026€2MPAOK ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2M, PAOK Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-08-14€100kLech Poznan
2013-02-07€150kLech Poznan
2013-07-22€250kLech Poznan
2014-02-14€250kLech Poznan
2014-07-21€500kLech Poznan
2015-03-05€1MLech Poznan
2015-06-30€1.5MLech Poznan
2016-01-10€1.2MLech Poznan
2016-03-28€1MLech Poznan
2016-07-24€900kLech Poznan
2017-01-21€1.2MLech Poznan
2017-07-05€1.5MLech Poznan
2018-01-12€2MDynamo Kyiv
2018-08-06€2.5MDynamo Kyiv
2018-12-10€3.5MDynamo Kyiv
2019-06-20€4MDynamo Kyiv
2020-01-08€3.5MDynamo Kyiv
2020-04-08€2.8MDynamo Kyiv
2020-09-04€2.8MDynamo Kyiv
2021-01-14€3.5MDynamo Kyiv
2021-05-31€5MDynamo Kyiv
2021-12-20€5MDynamo Kyiv
2022-06-14€4.5MLech Poznan
2022-12-06€3.5MDynamo Kyiv
2023-05-22€3MPAOK Thessaloniki
2023-12-20€2.5MPAOK Thessaloniki
2024-05-30€2.5MPAOK Thessaloniki
2024-12-18€2.5MPAOK Thessaloniki
2025-05-23€2.5MPAOK Thessaloniki
2025-12-12€2MPAOK Thessaloniki
2026-06-04€2MPAOK Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.236

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 79% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kędziora appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).