FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Walter Benítez

Walter

Benítez

GKArgentina · Crystal Palace

№ 296802Established €2.3M +0.55

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

WalterBenítez

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Crystal Palace
League
Premier League
Nationality
Argentina
Age
33
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Benítez at €4M. Model A, which never saw Benítez during training, estimates €2.3M: the market value is 73% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.73. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.55A €2.3M▲ +1.32B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
4,575
Started
51/51
Min / app
90
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Benítez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €2.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Walter Benítez's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 17th, European club minutes 87th72ndMinutes62ndStarts17thRecent87thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

22% this player0% goalkeeper median87th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Feb 2014
Peak
€14M
May 2022
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
4 club changes
Jun 2026€4MCrystal PalaceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Crystal Palace. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-02-10€150kUnknown
2015-01-10€600kQuilmes AC
2015-07-14€1.8MQuilmes AC
2016-02-06€3.5MQuilmes AC
2016-07-13€3.5MOGC Nice
2016-11-01€2.5MOGC Nice
2017-01-16€2MOGC Nice
2017-06-01€1.5MOGC Nice
2018-01-24€3.5MOGC Nice
2018-06-04€3.5MOGC Nice
2018-12-17€7MOGC Nice
2019-03-07€8.5MOGC Nice
2019-06-03€10MOGC Nice
2019-12-19€10MOGC Nice
2020-04-08€8MOGC Nice
2020-10-15€10MOGC Nice
2021-06-04€10MOGC Nice
2021-12-16€12MOGC Nice
2022-05-30€14MOGC Nice
2022-11-11€12MPSV Eindhoven
2023-06-23€12MPSV Eindhoven
2023-12-15€12MPSV Eindhoven
2024-03-18€13MPSV Eindhoven
2024-05-31€13MPSV Eindhoven
2024-12-17€12MPSV Eindhoven
2025-03-28€10MPSV Eindhoven
2025-05-28€7.5MPSV Eindhoven
2025-10-17€6MCrystal Palace
2025-12-09€5MCrystal Palace
2026-06-03€4MCrystal Palace

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.547

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 16% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 75% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Benítez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).