FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Eddy

Doué

DMCote d'Ivoire · CF Estrela Amadora

№ 1159661Emerging €984k −0.90

Player dossierLiga Portugal

EddyDoué

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
CF Estrela Amadora
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Cote d'Ivoire
Age
20
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Doué at €400k. Model A, which never saw Doué during training, estimates €984k: the market value is 59% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.46. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €986k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.90A €984k▼ −0.90B €986k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
14
Minutes
811
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
9/14
Min / app
58
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Doué…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €984k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Eddy Doué's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 60th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 9th, Starts 41st, Minutes, last 365 days 24th, European club minutes 30th60thGoals8thAssists9thMinutes41stStarts24thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.11 this player0.08 midfielder median60th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Mar 2026
Peak
€400k
May 2026
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
2
0 club changes
May 2026€400kCF Estrela AmadoraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, CF Estrela Amadora. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2026-03-19€300kCF Estrela Amadora
2026-05-28€400kCF Estrela Amadora

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.900

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 12% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Doué appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).