FairValue

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Daniil

Kondakov

CMRussia · Zenit St. Petersburg

№ 1109232Emerging €2.7M −0.60

Player dossierPremier Liga

DaniilKondakov

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Zenit St. Petersburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
18
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kondakov at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Kondakov during training, estimates €2.7M: the market value is 45% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.83. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.60A €2.7M▼ −0.03B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
15
Minutes
451
Goals
0
Assists
3
Started
4/15
Min / app
30
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kondakov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €2.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Daniil Kondakov's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 100th, Minutes, two years 0th, Starts 4th, Minutes, last 365 days 10th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals100thAssists0thMinutes4thStarts10thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.60 this player0.09 midfielder median100th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Nov 2025
Peak
€1.5M
May 2026
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
3
1 club change
May 2026€1.5MZenit St. PetersburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, Zenit St. Petersburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2025-11-18€250kZenit 2 St. Petersburg
2026-03-25€700kZenit St. Petersburg
2026-05-26€1.5MZenit St. Petersburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.604

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 57% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kondakov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).