FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Serxho

Ujka

AMAlbania · Zulte Waregem

№ 597289Emerging €950k −0.86

Player dossierPro League

SerxhoUjka

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Zulte Waregem
League
Pro League
Nationality
Albania
Age
27
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ujka at €400k. Model A, which never saw Ujka during training, estimates €950k: the market value is 58% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.86A €950k▼ −1.39B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
16
Minutes
688
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
7/16
Min / app
43
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ujka…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €950k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Serxho Ujka's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 66th, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 6th, Starts 15th, Minutes, last 365 days 19th, European club minutes 76th66thGoals93rdAssists6thMinutes15thStarts19thRecent76thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.26 this player0.09 midfielder median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jan 2019
Peak
€500k
May 2025
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
4 club changes
Jun 2026€400kZulte WaregemValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, Zulte Waregem. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-09€25kFC Shënkolli
2020-01-02€50kFK Bylis
2020-11-17€50kFK Bylis
2021-02-12€50kFK Bylis
2021-06-06€75kFK Bylis
2021-11-18€75kKF Laçi
2022-03-28€200kKF Laçi
2022-05-29€250kKF Laçi
2022-10-28€250kKF Laçi
2023-05-16€325kKF Laçi
2023-10-26€450kKF Laçi
2023-12-29€400kKF Laçi
2024-05-27€325kKF Laçi
2024-11-15€325kKF Egnatia
2025-03-25€450kKF Egnatia
2025-05-30€500kKF Egnatia
2025-12-10€400kZulte Waregem
2026-06-04€400kZulte Waregem

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.865

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 6% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ujka appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).