FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Alexandro

Calut

LBBelgium · Standard Liège

№ 565428Emerging €330k +0.19

Player dossierPro League

AlexandroCalut

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Standard Liège
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
23
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Calut at €400k. Model A, which never saw Calut during training, estimates €330k: the market value is 21% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €338k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.19A €330k▲ +0.17B €338k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
17
Minutes
604
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
6/17
Min / app
36
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Calut…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €330k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Alexandro Calut's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 3rd, Starts 2nd, Minutes, last 365 days 10th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists3rdMinutes2ndStarts10thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jun 2021
Peak
€700k
Oct 2025
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
13
3 club changes
Jun 2026€400kStandard LiègeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, Standard Liège. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-07€200kStandard de Liège U21
2022-01-06€200kStandard Liège
2022-04-12€500kStandard Liège
2022-10-05€350kStandard Liège
2022-12-22€350kStandard Liège
2023-05-30€300kStandard Liège
2023-12-19€300kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2024-06-04€300kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2024-12-11€400kStandard Liège
2025-06-12€400kStandard Liège
2025-10-01€700kStandard Liège
2025-12-10€600kStandard Liège
2026-06-04€400kStandard Liège

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.193

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 6% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Calut appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).